In the wake of the Supreme Leader’s death, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is emerging as the primary arbiter of Iran’s future. While the joint US-Israeli strikes targeted the very top of the clerical hierarchy, the military wing of the government appears remarkably unscathed and ready to consolidate its hold over the state’s political and economic levers.
Security in Tehran has reached a fever pitch, with paramilitaries patrolling every major intersection. This “show of force” is intended to stifle any domestic opportunism following the Leader’s demise. The state is keen to avoid a repeat of the embarrassment caused by a journalist’s recent live-broadcast blunder, which served as a reminder of the public’s fractured loyalty.
Constitutionally, a temporary leadership council is now at the helm. This group must navigate the delicate process of selecting a new leader through the Assembly of Experts while the IRGC watches from the wings. Many analysts believe the IRGC will favor a candidate who ensures the continuation of the current military-first foreign policy in the Persian Gulf.
Mojtaba Khamenei remains a pivotal figure in these discussions. His close ties to the security establishment make him a “continuity candidate,” yet his familial link to the late leader poses a symbolic challenge to the Republic’s founding principles. The decision made by the Assembly of Experts will likely reflect the IRGC’s preference for stability over reform.
One of the most pressing concerns for the international community is the fate of Iran’s nuclear fatwa. For years, the country’s policy against weaponization was anchored in the late leader’s religious decrees. Without his personal authority, the IRGC may feel empowered to steer the nuclear program toward a more overtly military trajectory.
