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Illicit Tobacco Surge Amid Australia’s Record Low Smoking Rates Impacts Market Dynamics

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Australia’s daily smoking rate has plummeted to an unprecedented low, with just 5.6% of individuals aged 14 and older lighting up each day in 2025, according to the latest findings from the National Drug Strategy Household Survey. This significant reduction from the 8.3% recorded in 2022–23 brings the country tantalizingly close to achieving its national objective of slashing daily smoking rates to 5% or less by 2030.

The survey further reveals that over two-thirds of Australians in the 14 and above age group have never taken up smoking, marking a record high. However, this success in reducing smoking rates is tempered by a notable rise in the use of illicit tobacco. The data shows that about 34% of smokers now admit to using illegal tobacco products, a significant jump from the 16.7% reported in the previous survey cycle. More than half of these individuals indicated they sourced their illicit tobacco from tobacconists.

In addition to the decline in daily smoking, overall nicotine consumption has also decreased, slipping from 17.4% to 15.2%. Notably, vaping among young Australians aged 18 to 24 has seen a reduction, dropping from 20.6% to 14%. Despite these encouraging trends, the survey highlights a growing inclination towards alternative nicotine products, such as nicotine pouches and snus, particularly among younger demographics.

Public health authorities emphasize that these results underscore the critical need for enhanced measures to combat the proliferation of illicit tobacco. Experts advocate for continued efforts in tobacco control, which include public education campaigns, licensing reforms, and stricter regulations on tobacco sales, to sustain and further the progress made in reducing smoking rates.

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